Sunday, August 30, 2015

Nicholson and Bailey

            The Balance of Animal Populations was published in The Proceedings of the Zoological Society in 1935. Bailey was an Australian physicist while Nicholson was an Australian entomologist. Much of this paper draws on earlier mathematical work done by Voltera and others working on early population modeling. Bailey and Nicholson begin by summarizing what one can assume was all the population modeling work published and available to them. They note that many earlier models are greatly simplified, or lack biological applicability. This pair of researchers works to bring mathematical modeling to ecology by progressively complicating an initially simple biological system: that of the parasite-host relationship.
            Section one defines the fundamentals of the investigation:
1. to exist and reproduce animals must obtain food, mates, and shelter
2. the searching of animal populations is always random
3. the probability of making random contacts can be expressed mathematically and is independent of individual search efficiency
4. competition between searching animals produces balance and interspecific oscillation
5. search efficiency depends on many factors
6. any given animal has an area of discovery for an object it seeks. The value of that area is influenced by general environmental conditions
7. with greater population density of species x, species x spends more time searching over previously searched areas.

            The investigators go on to note that their work will be limited to the search for food and shelter as they believe animals have little trouble finding mates unless in a very small population. The authors also note that certain individuals are likely to be better searchers, which leads to a damping of interspecific oscillation. The entomophagous parasite is used as a model as it hunts for food (host) required by offspring.  Hence the offspring are born in ideal conditions. The number of eggs laid is dependent on host and parasite, but in general one can assume that a host-parasite encounter will result in parasite offspring.
            Section two looks at the interaction of one host and one parasite species. Based on the assumptions above and an assumption of unlimited eggs the authors posit that there is a condition where the number of parasites and hosts are at a steady-state where the densities of the interacting animals do not change greatly. Complications of this scenario follow. This state implies that a particularly efficient parasite species can only be supported at a low density. It also follows that high birth rate does not necessarily cause a species to be abundant, but rather tends to cause the species to be scarce in the adult state. The next situation described involves when a parasite requires more than one host individual to develop. The outcome is a host density that varies inversely as the number of parasites increases. From this it is also derived that the efficiency of a parasite in controlling its host is increased when a greater number of parasites develop from one host. The third scenario describes when a host attacked can be attacked more than once. In summary this should lead to a situation where the steady density of the host must be higher than the simple situation. If the parasite species is unable to attack all previously un-attacked hosts, this situation implies egg limited parasites (which the author implies is not common) or defensive capabilities of the host population, which allows its density to grow greater than the simple prediction. The next scenario includes when hosts are limited by other factors besides parasites. In any case this will decrease parasite density and the host effect is conditional on the extrinsic factors timing pre or post parasite attack.  If the lifecycle of the parasite is longer than the hosts’ vulnerability period then the density of the hosts should be lower than expected. Lastly, if the vulnerability of the host and effective period of  the parasite do not overlap completely will cause both host and parasite density to rise.
            The third section of the paper deals with situations when several different species of parasite attack a common host. This situation is said to have no steady state as a steady state only applies when a parasite is operating under a set of conditions it creates. Accounting for the affect of so many variables operating independently at the same time is too complex to predict a steady state. This situation does increase the area of search-ability for a parasite if it can attack multiple hosts.
            Section four involves interspecific oscillations, which apply to a more natural system that might be perturbed by outside factors to allow either the host or parasite to stray from its steady state density. In general it is found that since hosts are the “food” for parasites, the parasite density should trail host oscillation by roughly a quarter “period.” Any perturbation from steady density is attributed to a interspecific causes not external factors and thus the oscillation should always return to the steady state. In a situation where a parasite has a hyper-parasite, the hyper-parasite is predicted to attack when host population density is at a minimum to influence the oscillation to pull it back up by reducing parasite load. The effects of increasing oscillation are predicted to be a fragmentation of host population that would be lower than predicted density. The oscillation may also be due to external factors beyond parasite control.
            Section five involves continuous interaction of host and parasite which is predicted to be greatly age distribution limited producing oscillations around this characteristic in both populations increasing in magnitude over time.

            In general the step-up approach applied in this paper makes it easier to understand what are otherwise fairly complicated models by end. I would hope that other commentators might provide some insight on the applicability of this to the field of parasitology and other infection systems. It seems that for its time this is a very complicated model applied to an ecological system.

Grinnell (1917) – The Niche-Relationship of the California Thrasher

Grinnell’s essay is focused primarily on observations of the natural history of the California thrasher, but in so doing he offers some astute insight into the determinants of species’ habitats and ranges. He starts by describing the range of the California thrasher, which is strictly limited to a particular life-zone (the Upper Sonoran division of the Austral zone), especially on the lower elevation edge of such habitat. Grinnell alludes to competitive exclusion when pointing out that the California thrasher avoids habitat that might otherwise be suitable in places where a similar species, Leconte’s thrasher, is prevalent. He states that the California thrasher’s range shows that it is restricted primarily by temperature, and secondarily by humidity (“faunal” restriction), with three sub-species found in different humidity zones. Grinnell goes on to describe the California thrasher’s habitat requirements and behavior in some detail – it’s shy and omnivorous, eating insects, berries, and seeds at or near ground level in chaparral with adequate cover, though open at ground-level. Several observations connecting the species’ form and function are made (e.g. curved beak for searching for insects beneath litter). Grinnell concludes by stating that the habitat requirements, temperament, and physical structure of the California thrasher demonstrate the niche it occupies among fauna in the region, and that no two species in a community have precisely the same niche relationship.
I have to say that while I found this piece to be a good read and a nice illustration of the basic idea of a niche, I am somewhat surprised by it’s selection as a foundational paper, given that these ideas had been previously developed (by Elton), and were more rigorously elaborated on soon thereafter (by Gause; see Kinglsand pgs. 6-9). I would’ve expected something explaining the niche concept in more depth and in a more generalized way.
Elton defined the niche in terms of an animal’s economic role, or place in the food chain (i.e. subdivision of carnivore, herbivore, insectivore etc. according to Kingsland). What is the difference between Elton’s and Grinnell’s niche concept (i.e. habitat), and what did Gause add? What about our current notion of the niche? How does the idea of the niche connect to related concepts like community assembly, functional diversity, and trophic ecology?

22 comments:

  1. I rather enjoyed Grinnell's description. It's simple, and precise and to the point. It's this kind of work that large-scale niche modeling is based on, and particularly to a paleo person, it's this kind of understanding of single organism niche-filling that allows us to form a picture of a prehistoric community. We don't have the benefit of being able to go out into the field and simply observe what extinct animals were doing, or even in many cases what other organisms may have limited their dispersal. And understanding basic niche-filling does allow us to draw conclusions about functional diversity- why organisms bare the traits they do, based on the availability of food, the climate around them and the competition they face. And because of the understanding we hold in the modern sense of how niche partitioning effects morphology and diversity, we can draw similar conclusions, albeit in reverse, for organisms that we have a decent understanding of morphology, but not necessarily behavior.

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    1. Kat, I agree with your point that basic niche-filling allows us to draw conclusions related to functional diversity. The paper by Grinnell is a very nice summary of one specific niche occupied by the California thrasher. Obviously Grinnell was devoted to these birds and could differentiate the factors that determine the range of each sub-species, ie. humidity has so much control over the different sub-species. Reading his paper makes me appreciate the specific niches that are occupied by various species, and in my mind is an argument for conservation of these niches. Like Matt said, his view is more of a naturalist and less of an experimenter, but this provides a (somewhat) unbiased analysis of this very specific habitat and species. On another note, this article was the first one in the book to explicitly state that further research needs to be done, especially regarding food sources.

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  2. Nicholson & Bailey

    "Let's put the alphabet in math" - Satan

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    1. When you get to a certain point, math really isn't about numbers at all but all about letters. The math in here is pretty interesting as they talk a lot about rates and then derive those rates based on a couple of other factors which is still something present today. They do a good job of presenting their equations and then deriving thing that make sense intuitively based on their equations, such as the idea that an efficient parasite (one that is good at killing its host) is not sustainable at high levels or over a small area. There is a ton of good stuff in the equations here that is fun to think about.

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    2. Hahaha.

      Noah would say that 'cause he's in a biomath lab. :)

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    3. Is an efficient parasite one that is good at killing its host, or one that is good at getting as much sustenance for as long as possible from its host?

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  4. Grinnell does a good job in describing the California thrasher's niche, but he does so in a more naturalistic way. This seems to me where many people will debate this paper and say that he focused too much on natural history rather than experimentation. I think that although there could have been more of an emphasis on experimentation, he brings to light this idea of "competitive exclusion" within a niche. This differs from Elton's early work where he did not discuss the idea of competitive exclusion, rather he focuses more on the animal's " economic role" in the community.

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  5. I enjoyed Grinnell’s work on the California Thrasher. It is explained that temperature, humidity, and presence of chaparral were some factors limiting the range of this bird and allowing it to occupy a unique niche. While reading this article I was painting an image of an organism that I assumed would now be threatened or in risk of being so due to its limited range, (chaparral of California and Baja). However after a little research I discovered it is listed as least concerned, and actually has a current distribution not dissimilar to the one illustrated in the text from 1917. I would be interested to see if the ranges of the different subspecies have remained similar.

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  6. Nicholson & Bailey:

    This article was a slog. I definitely appreciated the in-depth analysis of population fluctuations, and see why this paper is foundational. It is an extremely detailed theoretical account of population probabilities. It also seems to emphasize the importance of population fluctuations and interspecific competition. They mention this produces "certain effects like balance and interspecific oscillations", which could be the basis (or continuation) of so many genetic and ecological studies about evolution that determine why one species thrives while the other doesn't. This article reminds me a bit of the premise of "The Beak of the Finch", about Rosemary and Peter Grant who study the evolution and population dynamics of Darwin's finches in the Galapagos Islands.

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  7. Nicholas and Bailey did a good job of explaining why they made the assumptions they did such as the randomness of searching animal populations despite systematic searching of each individual. As well as justifying simplifications. Then came the math, Kat’s response was simple and frighteningly accurate. I was however thrilled that the paper then focused on parasite host interactions. That helped me through a few pages of equations. I pictured a little brachonid wasps laying eggs on some poor caterpillar condemning it to a horrid fate only to have a little ichneumonid return the favor to those eggs only to find I had flipped the page and needed to reread. However it did stress the importance of these interactions in influencing the population numbers of host and parasite causing the populations to oscillate around their respective "steady state".

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  8. Nicholson and Bailey were thorough in their mathematical analysis and even included graphs (a first in the articles so far!). Intra-specific competition and age distribution of the populations were an improvement of earlier models developed by Volterra and Lotka. Intra-specific competition amongst individuals for resources is an important variable to consider, especially within an enclosed system like host parasite interactions. The manuscript was heavy on mathematical theory, but the step by step process made it *slightly* easier to handle.

    On the other hand, Grinnell’s account of the California Thrasher was succinct. I enjoyed the casual dialog and thought the flow was straight forward and informative. My favorite quote is: “It is, of course, axiomatic that no two species regularly established in a single fauna have precisely the same niche relationships” (p. 433).

    Grinnell’s Niche-Relationships of the California Thrasher was descriptive rather than using mathematical ecology like Nicholson and Bailey. While both papers are fundamentally different, it is obvious there is a benefit to using succinct and descriptive language that includes experimental aspect of mathematical ecology.

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  9. Nicholson and Bailey: The paper which was originally submitted by Nicholson was rejected. Afterwards he started collaborating with the mathematician Bailey the results and the model became clear. Parasitic search randomly for host over a fixed period of time. The host that survives will leave offspring for the next generations, meanwhile the death host will let parasitoids to survive and reproduce in the following generations. Therefor there won't be stable interaction between the host and the parasitoids

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  10. According to Grinnell, the California Thrasher remarkably coincides with the Upper Sonoran zone. On the upper edge, it isn’t seen “even a few rods into Transition.” A rod is approximately 5 meters, by a rough estimate, a few rods wouldn’t be more than 15-20 meters, illustrating how closely this species is tied to its habitat. While temperature, humidity, and diet seem important conditions for the Thrasher, Grinnell emphasizes that the growth habit of the chaparral, “open next to the ground, with strongly interlacing branch-work and evergreen leafy canopy close above,” is an essential part of its predator evasion strategy. He supports this observation with a list of physical characteristics of the Thrasher related to functions contributing to the same strategy. I’m not sure how he jumps from this to the statement that it is “axiomatic that no two species regularly established in the same fauna have precisely the same niche relationships.” For example, he doesn’t mention other closely related species nearby or in overlapping habitats that occupy slightly different niches. Was this principle axiomatic before Grinnell articulated it in his 1917 paper?

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  11. Joseph Grinnell . According to Grinnell, the word niche define the ultimate distribution unit of one specie. The niche is set by abiotic factor such as physical barrier or climatic conditions. At the same time Elton was developing another concept for niche, where he is taking into account the food habits of the species

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  12. Grinnell's paper was really pleasant I thought. He was very descriptive of the thrasher and of its habitats and restrictions that caused it to live where it does without being too forceful. I also really liked his discussion of the adaptations of the different subspecies in relation to color of the birds throughout its own range.

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  13. Here are my questions about the Nicholson and Bailey paper:

    1. Is the parasite-host relationship really simpler than the predator prey relationship? Is it true that “parasites may attack hosts in proportion to the number met” (p. 552 and 556)?
    2. Is the assumption of independence in searching for prey warranted (p. 553)? What about organized pack-hunting such as wolves do? What about quorum sensing in bacteria?
    3. Would we now accept the assumption of unlimited availability of mates (p. 555)?
    4. Is the steady-state argument circular (p. 557-559)? Are Nicholson and Bailey assuming a priori that a stable equilibrium of the population densities of parasite and host exists, or are they showing that it exists?
    5. Is it likely that the result on p. 561 would be so neat and tidy (ha = 1)? That the final density of hosts that survive attack by parasites is inversely proportional to the area of discovery of a parasite individual?
    6. Where is section III, and where are equations 23—79? Is this a partial reprint?

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  14. I found Grinnell's paper to be very informative on the habitat and behavioral patterns of the California Thrasher. However, a person outside the discipline might not entirely understand his methodological process. All in all, I find this to be a good paper on describing observations of the niche relations of the California Thrasher, but it does not address all of the steps in the process.

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  15. I found the article by Nicholson and Bailey to be well ahead of its time. Read in 1935, the paper already employs the use of statistical analyses in order to address parasite-host relationships and the shortcomings of previous studies. All in all, this paper offers a thorough study of the interaction of animals under different circumstances. It also attempts to provide a comparison of the "steady state" and reality.

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  16. Like everybody else, I found the Bailey/Nicholson model paper to be rather dense. I definitely had to look up supplemental info to help with the read. What I found problematic was the many assumptions, such as the parasite/host interactions are random. This seems to work well theoretically but as soon as you get into the field and apply all of the steady state predictions, it fails. I am not sure if this idea was novel at the time, if so Bailey/Nicholson really helped the biology community in modeling. These ideas seem to directly correlate with carrying-capacity, possibly leading biologists to think more mathematically when it comes to predictions of populations in a given area.

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  17. I really enjoyed Grinnell’s natural history account. In-depth natural history observations of a single species and its community, still offer a lot of insight into natural systems where experimentation would be logistically difficult or impossible. This paper does seem somewhat out of place but I can see some hints toward bigger ideas. Grinnell seems to come close to connecting biogeography and ecology, and Sami shared a quote earlier that alludes to niche partitioning. Moreover, I think that had he taken this further and examined all of the thrashers in the southwest in similar detail he could have touched on ecological speciation.

    I recall discussing many of the concepts presented by Nicholson and Bailey way back when I was an undergrad. I have to say the math is not any clearer now then it was then (perhaps less so now) so I’m looing forward to the discussion. The concepts however are very familiar and it is interesting to see how our understanding of population biology with respect to resource in a community has grown out of this early work.

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  18. Grinnell: I did not catch what the faunal restrictions are for the thrasher. Is this the distinction between the different species for the genus and where they reside in the California region? Overall, I really enjoyed this paper (not just for its concise nature), but it is one of the first to focus on an animal rather than plant populations. It is also rather focused on this one particular example instead of looking at the entirety of a system, based on plant community.

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